The National Bureau of Statistics NBS will normalise Nigeria’s December 2025 inflation data to address projected spikes.
The announcement was made during a virtual stakeholders meeting with the Nigerian Economic Summit Group.
NBS explained that the spike is driven by base effects from the recent CPI rebasing.
The increase does not reflect fundamental changes in Nigeria’s economic conditions, the Bureau emphasised.
Analysts projected December headline inflation to range between 31.4 and 32.4 percent year-on-year.
Statistician General Adeyemi Adeniran said the spike arises from rebasing CPI to 2024 after 15 years.
Base effects are common in statistical practices when comparing periods with unusual price levels.
Adeniran stressed that the spike is artificial and should be clearly explained to data users.
NBS aims to maintain transparency, accountability, and methodological clarity in reporting inflation outcomes.
NESG CEO Dr Tayo Aduloju highlighted the importance of credible CPI data during economic consolidation.
He noted that misleading inflation signals could undermine confidence and macroeconomic stability.
Accurate CPI reporting supports policy decisions, wage negotiations, investment, and fiscal planning.
NBS Director of Price Statistics, Dr Ayo Anthony, explained methodological challenges from the 15-year CPI gap.
The rebased CPI now includes 934 products across 13 COICOP divisions, creating statistical complications.
To address this, NBS will apply a normalisation process using a 12-month average reference period.
This adjustment removes the artificial base effect and presents a clearer picture of price dynamics.
The Bureau consulted technical partners, including the IMF, World Bank, and CBN, on this decision.
From January 2026 onward, base effects will no longer affect inflation calculations.
NBS reaffirmed its commitment to periodic rebasing, methodological rigour, and ongoing stakeholder engagement.
The adjustment ensures Nigeria’s official statistics remain credible and accurately reflect economic realities.
