Analysts at Afrinvest say Nigeria’s economy could grow between 4.3 and 4.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025. They believe seasonal activities, stronger FX inflows, and better consumer spending will support the outlook. Their projection followed the new GDP report, which showed 4.0 per cent growth in the third quarter of 2025. This growth slightly trailed the 4.2 per cent recorded in the second quarter. However, it was stronger than the 3.9 per cent posted in the same period last year.
The firm expects year-end spending to lift economic activity. They also think improved FX supply and softer price pressure could boost business confidence. Even so, they warned that some challenges remain. Oil output uncertainty, fiscal strain, security issues, and tight monetary conditions could slow the pace of expansion.
Nominal GDP reached N113.6tn in the third quarter of 2025. It rose from N96.2tn recorded a year earlier. This increase came mainly from higher price levels. Both the oil and non-oil sectors supported the growth figures. However, the non-oil sector remained dominant.
The oil sector grew by 5.8 per cent due to stable production. Output averaged 1.64mbpd, slightly below the second quarter but above last year. Agriculture expanded by 3.8 per cent during the harvest season. The industrial sector grew by 3.2 per cent, showing slower activity. Services led overall growth with a 4.2 per cent expansion.
Economists say the economy remains resilient. Still, they note that slower growth in some sectors shows weakening momentum.
