After a sharp decline caused by the NIN-SIM linkage policy, Nigeria’s telecom sector is bouncing back. The market, once rocked by the deactivation of millions of unverified SIMs is now showing signs of growth again, led by major players MTN, Airtel, and Globacom (Glo).
The NIN-SIM Policy Impact
In December 2023, the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) enforced the NIN-SIM rule, cutting off unlinked SIMs. This dropped total mobile subscribers from 218.4 million (Jan 2024) to 169.3 million (Jan 2025).
- MTN: Lost 4.2 million lines
- Airtel: Had 4.9 million pending verifications
- Glo and 9mobile also saw sharp declines
Despite the dip, subscriber numbers are now climbing as telcos adjust.
Market Share Snapshot (As of Jan 2025)
1. MTN Nigeria – Still the Leader
- Market Share: 51.79%
- Subscribers: 87.5 million
- 1-Month Growth: +2.9 million
Despite reporting a ₦400.4 billion loss in 2024, MTN remains Nigeria’s telecom powerhouse with unmatched infrastructure and a broad service range.
2. Airtel Nigeria – Steady Challenger
- Market Share: 34.11%
- Subscribers: 57.6 million
- 1-Month Growth: +1 million
Airtel’s growth reflects strong customer retention and aggressive marketing. It’s closing in on MTN and capitalizing on service quality and reliability.
3. Globacom (Glo) – The Local Fighter
- Market Share: 12.15%
- Subscribers: 20.5 million
- Glo bounced back slightly from 20.1 million in December. But the gap is huge compared to its 60.29 million subscribers in 2022, a sign of deep losses from the SIM policy.
4. 9mobile – The Struggler
- Market Share: 1.94%
- Subscribers: 3.2 million
9mobile’s decline is ongoing, with stagnant growth and just a shadow of its former self in 2015 (23.4 million subscribers). Recovery looks unlikely without a major pivot.
Competitive Moves in 2025
- MTN: Dominates with reach, tech, and enterprise offerings. Focused on mobile money and digital solutions.
- Airtel: Winning users with price-friendly data and expanding network coverage.
- Glo: Emphasizing its “Grandmaster of Data” brand with rewards and data-heavy plans like the “Glo Festival of Joy.”
- 9mobile: Needs urgent innovation or partnership to stay relevant.
Telecom Sector Outlook: Growth Ahead
Despite recent setbacks, Nigeria’s telecom industry is on a strong recovery path.
📈 Growth Forecast:
- Projected to hit $17.13 billion by 2034
- CAGR: 5.20%
🔍 Opportunities:
- Mobile money and fintech integration
- Rural expansion for new subscribers
- Data-hungry services (streaming, e-learning, e-commerce)
⚠️ Challenges:
- Ongoing regulatory compliance
- High infrastructure costs
- Low consumer spending due to inflation
- Price wars are affecting revenue
Nigeria’s telecom rebound is being driven by MTN’s scale, Airtel’s agility, and Glo’s resilience. The lifting of NIN-SIM restrictions has sparked subscriber growth once again, and the battle for market share is heating up.
While MTN stays on top, Airtel is gaining fast, and Glo’s modest revival may hint at more competition ahead. For 9mobile, however, the road remains uncertain.
